On the Eve of the Houston Mayoral Election 2009

In less than 24 hours Houstonians will head to the polls to decide who will lead them in the new decade.

Both campaigns have been busy as they crunch numbers and review the early voter turnout. Voter turnout was higher than the general election but do not let that statistic deceive you.

It may well be that folks did not want to allocate time on their busy Saturday holiday schedule to satisfy their civic duty. Whatever the reason … about 5,000 more voters decided to cast their ballot than before. Roughly 67,000 voters have voted early in this runoff election.

Annise Parker edged out Gene Locke by receiving 30.8% compared to Locke’s 25.1% in the November election. That was a voter count difference shy of 10,000 that Locke would need to overcome this time around if he wishes to succeed.

Early voting went to Gene Locke the last time around … but not by a large margin. He was able to claim the most voters by only 16 people. Parker was at his heels and it is quite likely the early voting returns will reflect a similar picture.

178,777 out of 935,073 registered voters casted their ballots. That is roughly 19.12% of the voting populace. If Locke plans on celebrating he will need to make sure that his GOTV (Get Out The Vote) effort is strong tomorrow.

If his campaign can push voter turnout to over 200,000 then he has a better chance of winning. Less votes equals bad results for Locke because that means that his GOTV efforts may not be resonating with those undecided voters.

Parker needs to energize her base and avoid any complacency they may feel as a result of recent poll numbers. Although, she may be leading in poll numbers, if her base does not show up tomorrow to vote for her because they feel that Parker has already won … expect a sour night for the Parker campaign.

With such a low voter turnout from the electorate … every vote does count.

This election will most likely be over by 10:00PM. As long as there are no voting irregularities or problems at the polling places … expect a smooth ride.

Who will win is up to the fates to decide? A recent KHOU poll has Parker with a 13 point lead … but one must remember what polls also said about Peter Brown on the eve of Election Day in November.

To all the candidates … the best of luck is wished upon you … Houston, let’s get ready to rumble!