Six Answers for the Runoff

Charles Kuffner posed six question for the upcoming December Runoff Election here in Houston. I decided to take a stab at them for today’s post.

1. What will Peter do?

Peter Brown will make an endorsement. He will endorse Annise Parker but will that result in more votes for Parker … that I am not sure. I do not expect Peter Brown to get too heavily invested in the Annise Parker campaign other than the televised press conference in which he touts her service and leadership. Peter Brown will then quietly depart the political scene until the election is over. Ideology wise, he and Parker are closer in line than he is with Gene Locke.

Then, again … the word on the street is that the African-American coalition that stuck its neck for Peter Brown will coax him into endorsing Gene Locke. I do not see that happening since Peter Brown is Independent and has no future political aspirations so he won’t be compelled to meet their demands.

2. Where's the money?

It is no surprise that both the Gene Locke and Annise Parker campaign are running on fumes … but that was expected. Now, the most important goal is to begin fundraising to reach the airwaves. I expect the Gay community at the National level will play a more active role in supporting Parker … at least monetarily wise. Luckily, Parker boasts the most donors than Gene Locke who has maxed out on some*. This may play a critical role during the home stretch but I expect Parker to reach the airwaves in two weeks if not by Thanksgiving for sure.

As for Locke, he may better poised to start hitting home by the end of next week … that is all of course if we all assume that donations will start pouring in for these two candidates.

If the money does not trickle in … then no worries for the Parker campaign because they have been the only campaign to work under a budget that was much lower than Locke or Brown. They are more apt and versatile to getting their money’s worth. Their ground game is better off than Locke and that may prove decisive in a low-turnout election where money is tight for both campaigns.

3. What about the Republicans?

We underestimated Republicans the first time around but then again … there was a constitutional amendment and there was actually a Republican candidate. I do not expect Republicans to turnout for Locke like they did for Roy.

Unfortunately, for Republicans … they have two undesirable choices for Mayor and I expect them to not be compelled enough to vote for anyone in particular. Sure, there will be a few that will come out of the woodwork to vote for Locke but if Hotze and Patrick come within 100 feet of Gene Locke like Charles has mentioned … it may backfire on Locke. There is bi-partisan endorsements and then there is Partisan endorsements and it could prove to be a game changer for Parker if Locke gets the endorsements of those two controversial Republicans.

As for the Controller’s office … Green will have little difficulty in claiming victory. He has name recognition and support from the community at large.

Now, Jolanda Jones … as long as she keeps clear of any controversy and can get out the vote … she will do fine.

District F will be a bit trickier than I expected. It will all come down to Al Hoang getting his supporters to vote for him. If they fail to show up then expect a win for Mike Laster.

District A will be similar to District F but Lane Lewis has been able to get a grass roots movement moving along. Brenda Stardig should win it but I would not be surprised if Lewis gives her a run for the money.

4. How negative are things going to get?

There is no question that the campaigns will go negative … the real question is when and who. This is where I expect bloggers to cause a mess. Locke has failed to build a blogger base that lives on the Internet. These folks will be the ones digging up as much dirt about the candidates as possible. I expect things to turn sour for Locke and the main stream media will be sucked into it as they report on what bloggers like myself are finding out.

The reason I hear that Peter Brown lost was because he went negative … the second reason is because he used a photograph of Gene Locke in his attack ad. According to numerous folks that I have spoken to since the election … they speculate that African-Americans turned on Peter Brown after they saw that Gene Locke was black and he was being attacked by an “old white man.”

What does that mean … it means: Do not attack folks to the point that it becomes the catalyst for the other side to A) Drive up Donations and B) Turn out the Vote!

5. Who will the Chron endorse?

The real question is … Will it matter who the Houston Chronicle endorses? I think they will go with Annise Parker due to the novelty of endorsing the first gay mayoral candidate of a large U.S. city. Then, again … I won’t be surprised if they side with the business side of politics and endorse Gene Locke in order to avoid rocking the boat.

6. What will early voting look like?

Early voting could be as low as 20% but I expect the same enthusiastic 30% to vote on December 8 and mail their ballots in by December 12. It will come down to early voting in my opinion. The election will be decided by the outcome of December 8 and December 12 will just be reflection of what occurs on December 8. Expect the 5 week delay and Christmas shopping to take a toll on the voter turnout.

What do you think? Do you agree with my analysis or do you have a different opinion?

Update: *Max out in this context does not imply that donors can no longer contribute the maximum to Gene Locke or Annise Parker. Thank you to Martha Griffin for clarifying that point in an email.