Who’s the underdog in the Houston Mayoral Race?

I entertained this topic over lunch with friends in which we all shared our opinions of who had the edge in the 2009 Mayoral Election of the City of Houston. When it comes to the four candidates … who is the candidate to beat?

In order to answer that question though one must understand who enjoys the support of the establishment. There is only one candidate that in my opinion is enjoying an advantage although they do not boast it, which is good.

Gene Locke has the support and endorsements of high profile Democrats such as former Mayors Lee Brown and Bob Lanier. I must note though, Annise Parker did receive the endorsement of 56 Democratic Precinct Chairs but that may not translate to much to voters that rely on the big names.

Locke is not taking this race lightly either … he brought in some big guns last week when he hired Christian Archer as Campaign Manager and Kim Devlin as Senior Advisor to his political campaign.
For those unfamiliar with Archer, he is behind the successful campaigns of Will Wynn, Mayor of Austin, Bill White, Mayor of Houston and Phil Hardberger, Mayor of San Antonio. Archer and Devlin are an addition that will surely add some confidence to the Locke team.

On the other hand, no one has had a tighter campaign than Annise Parker. I am still impressed at their social media campaign and their communication with fellow bloggers. It seems that the Parker campaign understand what it takes to rally the troops via the Internet and has effectively managed the use of email newsletters. Her campaign is being run like a well oiled machine and it is quite evident.

The difference maker for Parker and Locke will be fundraising. The amount of money that both camps will collect and add to their war chest will dictate how close this race will be. Another important factor would be Peter Brown’s campaign.
Brown is truly the underdog in this race … often neglected but still operating like the little engine that could. This should in no way be interpreted as an endorsement for any candidate … on the contrary it is the opposite. I am merely offering my personal speculation of the race.

I have been told by different sources that the Peter Brown will bow out in August. Although this is merely a rumor and is unconfirmed … I do want to state that I hope that Peter Brown sticks around until Election Day.

The race will be unpredictable, as voters will have three viable and great candidates to choose from. It will be good for Houston if Brown sticks around, as it will keep both Locke and Parker active and competitive.

Who do you think is the underdog in this race? Do you think the race will be affected if any candidate bows out, before November?